Round 18 William Buck Premier Men’s Preview

VAFA Live Scores from around the grounds are set to be watched extremely closely on Saturday afternoon as the finals and relegation races go all the way to the wire in William Buck Premier Men’s.

THE FINALS RACE

Old Brighton will be Minor Premiers after re-establishing a two-and-a-half game lead over the 2^nd-ranked St Kevin’s… and that’s where things get VERY interesting, given there’s only another half-game back to Old Scotch in third.

The Tonners and SKOB will meet in a final-round blockbuster at Brighton Beach Oval, and if St Kevin’s stumble, the door will open for the Cardinals to snatch back the double chance.

So let’s dive a little deeper into the top-of-the-table showdown:

OLD BRIGHTON vs ST KEVIN’S

The Tonners have been the pace-setters all season, with SKOB hot on their heels.

St Kevin’s were on a 7-game winning streak to be firming as flag favourites until popular defender Michael Pisker suffered a horrific head injury in Round 12.

It understandably rocked St Kevin’s, and they’ve been building back towards their best form ever since. Coach Anthony Lynch is confident they are almost there, and now they get to test themselves against the competition benchmark, whom they may well be facing again in a Second Semi-Final next week.

Old Brighton is strong across the ground, ranked #1 Attack & #2 Defence, while St Kevin’s is #6 Attack & #3 Defence. The Tonners tend to lay more tackles, win more ground balls and dominate contested possession, while St Kevin’s have the aerial power Inside 50, led by the dangerous Patty Kerr.

SKOB won a 2-point thriller at home in Round 8 and this one looms as another nail-biter with so much on the line.

OLD SCOTCH vs OLD XAVERIANS

Meanwhile, Old Scotch will be trying to keep the pressure on SKOB by defeating Old Xaverians at Camberwell Sportsground. However, Xavs have their own burning motivation – a finals berth.

Currently one game behind Collegians (but with superior percentage), Xavs must win and hope that Collegians lose. If those two results eventuate, Xavs will steal fourth spot and end the Lions’ premiership defence.

But that will be easier said than done…

The Cardinals will be stung from having their 9-game winning streak snapped last week in a loss that cost them their Top 2 spot. Up until that lost to Collegians, they had been the form team of the competition, brushing aside the Tonners and SKOB with their effective brand of high-possession football.

But Xavs also love to possess the ball – in fact, these are the Top 2 Disposal teams in the comp, with Xavs also leading the clearance and contested possession count. They will look to control the game from the source and try to prevent the Cardinals from stringing together their damaging uncontested possession chains.

Old Scotch are level with Collegians for #1 Disposal Efficiency, so winning the ball back off them is tough to do. If Xavs can get first hands on the ball inside, they can prevent the Cards from playing keepings-off. It promises to be a fascinating tactical battle.

COLLEGIANS vs FITZROY

Xavs’ fans will have one eye on the score at Harry Trott Oval, hoping that Collegians get the staggers against Fitzroy.

If the Lions can get the job in the final round, they keep their season alive for at least another week. And what an up-and-down season it’s been for the reigning premiers, who have battled a crippling injury toll for much of the campaign.

At their best, Collegians rack up the disposal count and control the game by retaining possession.

But neither of these teams are particularly strong in contested ball and they are the Bottom 2 teams for Clearances. Hence, Collegians rely heavily on their excellent intercept marking game & gain plenty of possession from turning opposition attacks around and counter-punching.

So, the Roys will need to be careful going forward and avoid bombing to the likes of Scott Beilby, Will Pewtress and Jasper Davy who are all in the League’s Top 10 for Intercept Marks.

Fitzroy’s late-season rally has been as inspiring as it was unexpected, given they had won just 2 games for the season before peeling off the last 3 in a row to keep their hopes of remaining in Premier Men’s alive.

Can they find a way to make it 4 straight and pull off an escape that Houdini would be proud of?

St Bernard’s and Uni Blacks fans will hope not, and they will be madly refreshing their phones to keep up with the Fitzroy score.

If the Roys fall, both the Snowdogs and Blacks will be safe in Premier Men’s for another season.

But if the Roys can pull off the upset, then things may start to get very tight at the tail-end of the table…

ST BERNARD’S vs OLD MELBURNIANS

St Bernard’s are level on points with the Roys but hold a 14% advantage. So, if they can defeat wooden-spooners Old Melburnians, they should be safe.

However, OMs will be farewelling coach Paul Satterley and would love to make an emphatic statement with an away win at one of the competition’s most intimidating venues – the Snake Pit.

But Steve Alessio’s group has been resilient and spirited all season long. Ravaged by injury, they’ve continually showed up and scrapped hard.

They’ve let themselves down with their disposal at times, racking up the most turnovers in the competition but so have OMs – in fact, these two teams are bottom 2 for Disposal Efficiency, so the turnover game could ultimately decide this battle.

Only the Top 2 teams have generated more Inside 50s this season than the Snowdogs, so their ability to get the ball forward & scoring hasn’t been the issue – defending has, with the hosts ranked last for Points Against.

But that has been almost as big a challenge for OMs. Who can retain possession more effectively & avoid getting punished on turnover? That team may well finish their season with a win.

OMs have played some very good patches of football this season that have stretched the best teams in the competition. So if they can get the game on their terms for long enough, the Snowdogs’ faithful may have cause to get a little nervous.

Catch every moment of our VAFA SEN MATCH OF THE DAY – ST BERNARD’S vs OLD MELBURNIANS – LIVE on the SEN app, SEN.com.au & VAFA.com.au from 1.45pm Saturday.  

This brings us to Uni Blacks fans, who will be keeping a keen eye on the Snowdogs AND the Roys. If one loses, they are safe. But if BOTH WIN, then Blacks could potentially tumble from seventh to ninth and be relegated for 2025.

UNIVERSITY BLACKS vs UNIVERSITY BLUES

Every University Derby is full of passion and emotion, but this one will have that added ingredient of potential relegation. Blacks will be hell-bent on victory, but the Blues would love nothing more than to send their arch-rival down to Premier B next season.

Both teams have endured frustrating campaigns. The Blues got away to a promising start, led by dynamic forward duo James Stewart and Sam Grimley.

Their best football looked good enough to challenge anyone in the competition, but then came the injuries, loss of confidence and form as the Blues crashed from winning 7 of 8 to losing the next 7 straight to see their finals hopes go up in smoke.

They finally returned to the winners’ list with a 25-point victory over OMs last week to guarantee their safety in Premier Men’s. Now they may have the chance to scuttle their rival and end their season with what would be very sweet bragging rights indeed.

However, Blacks won’t go quietly into the night. Much like the Blues, Dale Bower’s team started the season well but fell into a mid-season hole before rallying to win 3 of their last 4 and significantly strengthen their chances of surviving relegation.

Their Round 4 Derby turned out to be a 5-point thriller, with Blacks hanging on in an agonisingly tense final quarter. Are they in for another of those? Their fans certainly hope not!

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Join the VAFA SEN MATCH OF THE DAY call team for our live coverage of ST BERNARD’S vs OLD MELBURNIANS from 1.45pm Saturday on SEN.com.au & the SEN app.

Enjoy our OLD BRIGHTON vs ST KEVIN’S double-header live streaming on KOMMUNITY TV from 11.35am Saturday (Reserves) into the Seniors from 1.45pm.

Keep up to date with the LIVE SCORES on Saturday afternoon by clicking the button below: