Round 17 William Buck Premier Men’s Preview

The penultimate round of William Buck Premier Men’s may prove decisive in the race to make the finals or avoid relegation. The stakes are high for all 10 teams!

Let’s start with the key match in the relegation race as Fitzroy (9^th: 16pts, 72.1%) hosts University Blacks (7^th: 24pts, 79.4%) at Brunswick Street Oval.

These two teams enter in season-best form after putting in plenty of hard work, which is now reaping the rewards at the end of the season.

The Roys are coming off back-to-back top-flight wins for the first time in club history, after accounting for OMs by 3 points and Uni Blues by 15 to breathe life back into their prospects of staying up in Premier Men’s.

They have unlocked their scoring potential in these victories by sharing the load up forward, which makes them less predictable and more difficult to defend. If they can get and maintain speed on the ball and turn this game into a high-paced up-and-back affair, they will be confident of a third straight success.

Like the Roys, Uni Blacks have found some form when they needed it most, turning a 5-game mid-season losing streak into three consecutive wins that have almost got them to safety.

Given their last two victories have been over Top 4 teams (Old Xavs & St Kevin’s) in tight contests where they started clear underdogs, they now face a very different challenge as they start favourites in front of the raucous Fitzroy faithful at Brunswick Street.

Blacks will feel like they have the edge on the inside and via their intercept game. If they can control the contest and set up well behind the ball to cover their tendency to turn the footy over, they will be in good shape and can hunt the Roys with their high-pressure style (Blacks #1 Tackles).

It’s a massive game in the context of relegation – if the Roys win, they could potentially join the Snowdogs on 5 wins and set up a thrilling final round. If Blacks win, they will be guaranteed safe passage back to Premier Men’s next season.

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Another game with massive relegation connotations will see Uni Blues (6^th: 24pts, 85.5%) host Old Melburnians (10th: 14pts, 75.4%) at Melbourne Uni Oval in a clash between two teams that haven’t won a game since Round 9.

Quite simply, this is an Elimination Final for OMs. Lose and they will be headed for Premier B next season.

Uni Blues appear safe to remain in the top-flight but can still mathematically be relegated should the next fortnight turn disastrous (they’d need to lose both, have Fitzroy win both & make up 13.3%).

Does that translate to this game meaning more to OMs? Yes. Does that have an impact? We’re about to find out.

Paul Satterley’s men avoided relegation last season by the barest possible margin, so they already believe in miracles. And despite having not won a game since Round 9, their form in their past 4 starts has been solid.

They jumped the white-hot Cardinals last week to reinforce their ability to stretch anyone when they’re on song. Their challenge now is to extend those periods of dominance and take a full toll on the scoreboard while they’re on top.

The Blues have had a tough year with injuries and have been the most disappointing team in the competition as a result, given their early season form proved that – at their best – they could have been a contender, led by the dynamic duo of James Stewart & Sam Grimley up forward.

They’ll be keen to finish the season strongly and end any relegation danger by snapping their 7-game losing streak to guarantee their safety. But – if they let OMs hang around…

It’s a Top 4 clash at Brighton Beach Oval as the ladder-leading Old Brighton (1st: 56pts, 148.7%) host Old Xaverians (4^th: 36pts, 115.7%) with plenty on the line for both teams.

The Tonners can wrap up their first Premier Men’s minor premiership since 200X, while the stakes are even higher for Old Xavs, who are in a desperate struggle with Collegians for fourth spot & a finals berth.

Xavs had the chance to re-establish their one-game advantage over the Lions last week, but stumbled against Uni Blacks and must now run the gauntlet against the Top 2 teams in the final fortnight. They currently lead Collegians by 6.39% but that percentage could swing rapidly should they suffer a heavy loss or the Lions enjoy a big win.

Of greater concern may be their form over the past two starts. Prior to that, they were starting to firm as a legitimate premiership contender, stringing together 4 consecutive wins and looking like a team ready to surge into September.

But their performances against Blacks (7pt loss) and then St Bernard’s (43pt loss) have set Xavs back on their heels and now they must regroup to face the toughest two challenges in the comp – Old Brighton & Old Scotch.

The Tonners are priming themselves for a September tilt. Having won 7 of their past 8, they have bounced back strongly from their 25-point loss to Old Scotch in Round 14 to dominate St Bernard’s & Collegians.

They will be keen to continue their momentum with strong performances against two potential challengers in Old Xavs this week and then St Kevin’s in the final round next week.

All eyes will be on Xavs. Can they rediscover their best & take a huge step towards the finals? Or will the Tonners assert their dominance at home once again. It promises to be a revealing afternoon at Brighton!

Catch our OLD BRIGHTON vs OLD XAVERIANS double-header live streaming on KOMMUNITY TV from 11.40am Saturday (Reserves) into the Seniors from 1.45pm.

Both the Tonners & the Xavs fans will have one eye on the Around the Grounds scores from Camberwell as Old Scotch (2nd: 48pts, 139.0%) host Collegians (5^th: 36pts, 109.3%).

The Cardinals are the only team that can potentially snatch the minor premiership from Old Brighton, while the Lions are locked in that two-way battle with Xavs for fourth spot so this game means plenty in the jostling for finals positions.

Old Scotch are the form team of the competition, sweeping all before them on a 9-game winning streak, including recent wins over fellow contenders St Kevin’s & Old Brighton.

But they came up short against Collegians in their Round 2 meeting after butchering numerous chances to put the game to bed and leaving the door open for the reigning premiers to commit daylight robbery – which they duly did.

The Lions have been decimated by injury for most of the season, yet have found a way to keep their premiership defence alive by blooding youngsters who have risen to the occasion.

With two weeks remaining, they know that a win here against the Cardinals or next week against Fitzroy may well be enough to steal fourth spot back from Xavs. Victory this week would not only place enormous pressure on Xavs, it would provide the Purple Army with an enormous confidence boost and genuine belief that they can rise up into the premiership mix if they can make it into the Final 4.

But beating Old Scotch at the moment is easier said than done. These two great rivals have enjoyed some incredible clashes over the years – maybe we’re in for another?

The final clash of Round 17 sees St Kevin’s (3rd: 46pts, 120.5%) host St Bernard’s (8th: 20pts, 89.0%) at TH King Oval in a huge game for both teams, but for very different reasons.

SKOB had been safely entrenched in the Top 2 all season until back-to-back losses to Old Scotch & Uni Blacks in the past two starts have seen the Cards leapfrog them and the precious double-chance slip from their grasp.

They now sit half a game behind Old Scotch, so they need the Cardinals to slip up if they are to snatch it back. But all Anthony Lynch’s men will be worried about is taking care of their own business and that starts by getting back to SKOB footy this week against the dangerous Snowdogs, who are in a struggle of their own.

St Bernard’s have been without more than half their 2023 premiership line-up for extended periods this season and, much like Collegians, it has forced them to blood new faces who have stepped up and grabbed their opportunity.

Steve Alessio’s team are returning to health at just the right time as they fight to avoid relegation and their impressive 43-point win over Xavs last week was an enormous step in the right direction.

A win this weekend could potentially guarantee their safety and take the nerves out of their final-round appointment with OMs. But a loss (combined with a Fitzroy and/or OMs win) could force the Snowdogs into a nerve-jangling Round 18 Relegation Final.

SKOB at TH King is always an extremely tough assignment. But given the respective lead-in form of both teams, the visitors will give themselves every chance of sealing the deal on Premier Men’s for 2025.

However, they’ll also be expecting a strong response from St Kevin’s, who know that the footy they’ve played in their last two matches isn’t going to get it done in September and they will be hell-bent on rediscovering some form on the eve of the finals.

Join the VAFA SEN MATCH OF THE DAY call team for our live coverage of FITZROY vs UNIVERSITY BLACKS from 1.45pm Saturday on SEN.com.au & the SEN app.

Enjoy our OLD BRIGHTON vs OLD XAVERIANS double-header live streaming on KOMMUNITY TV from 11.40am Saturday (Reserves) into the Seniors from 1.45pm.

Keep up to date with live scores and the latest news at VAFA.com.au