Round 16 William Buck Premier Men’s Preview

With the last William Buck Premier Men’s bye in the rear-view mirror, the 3-week sprint to the finish line begins with Round 16 as the finals and relegation races kick up another gear.

Perennial contenders St Kevin’s (2^nd: 11-3-1) have been in the mix all year but suddenly find themselves at risk of dropping out of the Top 2 after their loss to the Cardinals last start.

Now they head to Melbourne Uni for a potentially tricky clash with a reinvigorated University Blacks (7^th: 5-10) who are coming off back-to-back wins over OMs and Old Xavs that lifted them out of the drop zone.

The Blacks showed plenty of pluck after going 3 goals down early against an in-form Xavs, finding a way to stabilise their situation, then power into the lead with 7 goals to 3 across the middle two quarters.

The bye may have come at a good time for SKOB, who have endured an emotionally taxing month after the loss of popular team-mate Michael Pisker to serious injury. They struggled through a draw with OMs, had a comfortable win over Fitzroy but were then played off the park by Old Scotch in a most uncharacteristic performance that will have stung their group.

But this game is now about more than pride in their own performance. The double chance may ride on it, so last year’s runners-up cannot afford another slip up against a team that is suddenly looking a little dangerous.

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The reigning champs host the league-leaders as Collegians (5^th: 9-6) face Old Brighton (1st: 13-2) at Harry Trott Oval.

The Lions hit the bye on a high after back-to-back wins over St Bernard’s & Uni Blues drew them back level with Xavs in the race for the fourth finals berth.

They have survived a brutal injury run and come out the other side with some impressive young players having grown in confidence and belief. But the knock on Collegians this season is whether they are good enough against the teams above them, with a 2-4 record against the Top 4.

The Tonners have set the pace all season and are well-placed to collect the minor premiership, sitting on a 6-point lead with 3 games to go.

However, all of those matches have the potential to be dangerous — Collegians, Old Xavs, and St Kevin’s in a final-round blockbuster.

Marcel Bruin and his team will be focused on building into their best football by September. They know that their A-game is good enough, and they’ll get to stress-test it in the run home.

And the Lions at Harry Trott is generally a pretty stern test!

The remaining three games will all have a direct impact on the relegation race.

Fitzroy (10^th: 3-12) host University Blues (6^th: 6-9) in a massive game for the Roys at Brunswick Street Oval.

Their season looked to be fading before they sparked it back to life with a gutsy 3-point win over OMs in Round 15 that brought them back within a game (plus percentage) of St Bernard’s and safety.

With back-to-back home games against the two University teams, beginning with Blues this week, the Roys will realise that their time to make a move is now. Win both of those and they could potentially leapfrog the Snowdogs and out of the drop zone.

The Blues have been the least predictable team in the competition this season. Their best has been irresistible, but injuries and unavailability have meant that those glimpses have been too few and far between.

They are the only Premier Men’s team not currently immersed in the finals or relegation race. They are safely clear of the drop zone but too far back to threaten the Top 4.

Do they finish strong or fall away? A potential banana peel awaits at Brunswick Street this Saturday…

St Bernard’s (8^th: 4-11) will be hoping that the Blues take care of business at Fitzroy while they do the same at the Snake Pit against the visiting Old Xaverians (4^th: 9-6).

The Snowdogs have their own injury woes, as they have been missing a significant number of their 2023 premiership squad for an extended period.

The bye came at a good time, given that they have lost four of their last five. They’ll be hoping to regain a few front-line troops to help them see off the relegation threats below.

They are always a tricky proposition at home and will be confident of handing Xavs back-to-back losses, but Dan Donati’s line-up will have been stung by their shock loss to Blacks before the bye and a strong response is expected.

That performance stripped Xavs’ margin for error away again and they know they will need to outperform Collegians in the run home if they are to hang onto fourth spot. Both teams play Old Brighton & Old Scotch, so the four points on offer here against the Snowdogs are of critical importance to Xavs.

Drop this one and they may find themselves hoping Fitzroy can roll the Lions in the final round, so it looms a critical game for Xavs to maintain control of their own destiny.

The final clash of Round 13 sees Old Melburnians (9^th: 3-11-1) host Old Scotch (3rd: 11-4) at Elsternwick Park.

OMs have played some impressive patches of footy this season but still find themselves fighting for Premier Men’s survival for a second straight year.

They enter Round 16 half-a-game behind St Bernard’s, so needing to win one more than the Snowdogs in the final 3 rounds if they are to escape relegation once again.

This week they face the toughest assignment in the competition at the moment – the white-hot Cardinals, who will roll into Elsternwick Park on an 8-game winning streak and full of confidence having impressively beaten the Top 2 teams.

Old Scotch are safely inside the Top 4 but will be eyeing off a Top 2 finish and the double-chance that comes with it. They sit half-a-game behind St Kevin’s, so will need to win one more than SKOB on the run home – not impossible, given they’ll visit the Tonners in the final round.

Mark Gnatt and Paul Satterley have a long history and this may be the final time they lock horns given Satts has announced his departure from OMs at season’s end.

How he would love to manufacture another late-season miracle – and few wins could be more miraculous than defeating Old Scotch right now!

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