The Run Home – William Buck Premier Men’s

Both the finals and relegation races in William Buck Premier Men’s are set to go down to the wire. Which teams can make the Top 4 & which may be headed for Premier B next season? 

It’s been an extremely competitive Premier Men’s competition in 2024 with most teams experiencing the typical ups and downs of a marathon season.

Let’s review the state of play for each team with three home & away rounds remaining:

1. OLD BRIGHTON (52 points; 147.2%)

The Tonners have been the pacesetters all season long and given they currently hold a 6-point lead with just three games to play, you could be forgiven for believing they have one hand on the minor premiership.

But – when you check their run home, you see three extremely challenging games, all of which are droppable, so Old Brighton definitely isn’t there yet.

If they drop one of their next two & SKOB win their next two, it would set up a final-round showdown for the minor premiership at Brighton Beach Oval… yes, please!!

THE RUN HOME:

Rd.16    Collegians (Harry Trott Oval)

Rd.17    Old Xaverians (Brighton Beach Oval)

Rd.18    St Kevin’s (Brighton Beach Oval)

2. ST KEVIN’S (46 points; 122.8%)

Last year’s runners-up have been in the Top 2 mix all season and have kept the pressure on the Tonners the entire way.

They bounced back from their understandably distracted draw with OMs to hammer Fitzroy by 73 points, however they were then dismantled themselves by Old Scotch last time out.

This not only allowed Old Brighton to slip a game-and-a-half clear again, but it also allowed the rampaging Cardinals to close within half a game, leaving SKOB with no margin for error if they are to avoid slipping to third and the cutthroat Semi-Final that comes with that.

They face two tricky assignments in an improved Blacks at home, then the Snowdogs in what is always a challenging trip to the Snake Pit. Then that final round blockbuster at Brighton, potentially with the Cardinals still breathing down their neck & waiting to pounce!

THE RUN HOME:

Rd.16    University Blacks (Melbourne University Oval)

Rd.17    St Bernard’s (TH King Oval)

Rd.18    Old Brighton (Brighton Beach Oval)

3. OLD SCOTCH (44 points; 138.7%)

Having beaten the Top 2 teams in their last two starts, it’s fair to ask whether the Cardinals should be the premiership favourites.

Riding an impressive 8-game winning streak, they have rocketed into the Top 2 conversation and, if they continue their winning form, can position themselves for a potential final-round steal.

But the form team of the competition will not be able to take anything for granted in the final three weeks, given they will be facing three extremely motivated opponents – OMs are fighting for survival, while Collegians and Old Xaverians are locked in a desperate struggle for the fourth & last finals spot.

The Cardinals sit two games and percentage ahead of the Lions and Xavs so appear safe inside the Top 4, but they can’t afford a slip-up if they are to make a late lunge at a Top 2 finish.

THE RUN HOME:

Rd.16    Old Melburnians (Elsternwick Park)

Rd.17    Collegians (Camberwell Sportsground)

Rd.18    Old Xaverians (Camberwell Sportsground)

4. OLD XAVERIANS (36 points; 122.1%)

Old Xavs appeared to be thundering towards a late-season charge of their own, winning 4 straight and belting the Blues by a whopping 99 points.

Their Round 13 win over Collegians kicked them a game clear of the Lions in the race for fourth spot, but their shock Round 15 loss to Uni Blacks has thrown the finals race wide open again and Xavs now head to Round 16 locked together with Collegians on 36 points and with a slim 7.64% advantage.

If Xavs are going to make it into the Final 4, they will have to prove their credentials to get there, given that their final two matches are against the ladder-leader and the white-hot Cardinals, who are fighting for the Top 2.

At their best, Xavs are capable of challenging anyone. Can they find the necessary consistency to complement their brilliant in the sprint to the line?

THE RUN HOME:

Rd.16    St Bernard’s (Snake Pit)

Rd.17    Old Brighton (Brighton Beach Oval)

Rd.18    Old Scotch (Camberwell Sportsground)

5. COLLEGIANS (36 points; 114.5%)

The reigning premiers find themselves in precisely the same boat as Xavs – both on 36 points and having to face Old Brighton & Old Scotch in the run home.

The key differences are that their ‘other’ game is against Fitzroy at Harry Trott in the final round (versus Old Xavs’ visit to St Bernard’s this weekend) and they have two home games (versus none for Old Xavs).

Despite being the title holders, this 2024 Lions team is vastly different to the one that lifted the cup last season, and it has been a year of blooding impressive new talent and integrating them into the line-up while also battling a crippling injury list through the middle of the campaign.

Their last two wins have shown Collegians’ ability to prevail in different ways on the road. They had to come from behind away to the Snowdogs, which is easier said than done. Then they got the jump on the Blues and controlled the game all afternoon in an impressive, confidence-building performance.

They are 2-4 against the four teams currently above them this season, with wins over Old Scotch and Old Xavs in Rounds 3 and 4. Can they pinch one off the Tonners or Cardinals in the next two weeks and give themselves a huge chance of keeping their premiership defence alive or does it all come down to that final round against the Roys?

THE RUN HOME:

Rd.16    Old Brighton (Harry Trott Oval)

Rd.17    Old Scotch (Camberwell Sportsground)

Rd.18    Fitzroy (Harry Trott Oval)

6. UNIVERSITY BLUES (24 points; 85.6%)

The Blues are in mid-table limbo as the only Premier Men’s team not currently in the finals or relegation race.

There’s both comfort and frustration in that, given they’ve shown themselves capable of stretching the better teams at times this season but have also been cruelled by injuries to their top-line talent which has left them vulnerable to sliding down the ladder.

Fortunately, they’ve already done enough to clear the relegation zone so they can focus on finishing the season strongly and continuing to develop their list, comfortable in the knowledge that they’re building for another Premier Men’s tilt in 2025.

They have three winnable games, providing an opportunity to finish the season on a high, which generally helps with player satisfaction and retention. Plus the added incentive of a final-round Uni Derby against the Blacks, which could still have significant connotations…

THE RUN HOME:

Rd.16    Fitzroy (Brunswick St Oval)

Rd.17    Old Melburnians (Melbourne University Oval)

Rd.18    University Blacks (Melbourne University Oval)

7. UNIVERSITY BLACKS (20 points; 77.7%)

The Blacks sit one game behind their University rivals but, more importantly, and game-and-a-half above the drop zone after back-to-back wins over OMs and OId Xavs in their past two starts.

Those victories snapped a 5-game losing streak that had seen Blacks slide into dangerous territory. But full credit to Dale Bower and his team for pulling out of that nosedive just in time and, with three games to go, their destiny is back in their own hands.

They won’t be complacent and will be keen to keep their momentum rolling, with Bower telling our FOR THE LOVE OF THE GAME podcast last week that they had regrouped and set themselves a target of 7 wins.

Currently on 5 victories, one more may be enough to ensure their safety. Two would guarantee it.

They’ll take a swing at St Kevin’s this week, then focus on closing their season out in winnable games against Fitzroy and Uni Blues. That final round Derby could end up being for bragging rights on who finishes higher.

THE RUN HOME:

Rd.16    St Kevin’s (Melbourne University Oval)

Rd.17    Fitzroy (Brunswick St Oval)

Rd.18    University Blues (Melbourne University Oval)

8. ST BERNARD’S (16 points; 85.1%)

The Snowdogs have been plucky all season long. Competitive most weeks, they’ve battled a hefty injury list that has robbed them of precious 2023 premiership experience and forced them to blood new talent, which will undoubtedly have long-term benefits.

But right now, Steve Alessio’s focus is on securing another season in Premier Men’s and his team is precariously positioned just half-a-game above the relegation zone with OMs breathing down their neck and Fitzroy just one game behind.

The bye came at a good time, given they had lost 4 of their last 5 to slide back into dangerous territory. But after a week off to refresh and hopefully regain a few handy inclusions to stiffen their line-up, the Snowdogs will be keen to launch into Old Xavs at the Snake Pit this weekend, having seen Blacks knock them over last start.

That will be followed by a tough task against SKOB away, but they’ll enter that challenge with the confidence of having belted last year’s runners-up by 52 points in Round 3, which remains one of the most stunning upsets of the entire season.

Their immediate future may come down to the final round when they host OMs at the Snake Pit. What a game that promises to be!

THE RUN HOME:

Rd.16    Old Xaverians (Snake Pit)

Rd.17    St Kevin’s (TH King Oval)

Rd.18    Old Melburnians (Snake Pit)

9. OLD MELBURNIANS (14 points; 75.8%)

OMs coach Paul Satterley was a modern-day Steve McQueen when he orchestrated 2023’s version of The Great Escape.

His team survived in the top flight by just 1.62% over Old Haileybury after one of the closest relegation races in VAFA history and Satts may have to pull another rabbit out of his hat to do it again in 2024.

He has already announced that this will be his final year in charge at Elsternwick Park, so he and his players will be keen to send him off on a high note.

Currently half-a-game behind St Bernard’s, OMs just need to stay close enough over the next two weeks to give themselves a chance of escaping the jaws of relegation at the final moment once again.

This week they host the in-form Cardinals but will have drawn confidence from their last three starts which saw a draw with St Kevin’s and competitive performances against Blacks and Fitzroy.

Then they’ll visit the Blues before heading to the Snake Pit for the final round showdown against the Snowdogs for what could effectively be an Elimination Final.

THE RUN HOME:

Rd.16    Old Scotch (Elsternwick Park)

Rd.17    University Blues (Melbourne University Oval)

Rd.18    St Bernard’s (Snake Pit)

10. FITZROY (12 points; 69.4%)

Fitzroy’s first season in Premier Men’s has been every bit as challenging as coach Travis Ronaldson expected, particularly given their injury challenges along the way.

But the Roys have been supremely resilient all season long, repeatedly digging deep late in games rather than just throwing in the towel and accepting their fate.

So it comes as no surprise that they are taking the same approach to this relegation race, continuing to struggle and fight all the way to the final siren.

Things looked bleak a couple of weeks ago when they found themselves a game-and-a-half behind the rest of the field with just four to play.

But their gritty 3-point win over OMs in Round 15 has breathed life back into their season and they will launch into the final three rounds with some genuine belief that they can still escape the hangman’s noose and remain in Premier Men’s next season.

Now just a game plus percentage behind St Bernard’s and safety, they will need to win two of their last three and hope that the Snowdogs go winless.

And whilst that seems optimistic for a team that has only won three games for the season, a closer look at their run home provides some hope. They play the two unpredictable University teams at Brunswick Street Oval, where they grow another leg in front of their rowdy faithful.

Win both of those and they may not even need to beat the reigning champs in the final round should the Snowdogs get the staggers.

One thing is for certain – the Royboys will never give up!

THE RUN HOME:

Rd.16    University Blues (Brunswick Street Oval)

Rd.17    University Blacks (Brunswick Street Oval)

Rd.18    Collegians (Harry Trott Oval)

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