Tigers, Sharks catch their prey, Swans, X-Men on the brink

Jake Morris

Just four weeks remain of the Division 4 home-and-away season and thanks to a couple of spirted mid-season runs and some untimely collapses, five teams will now try squeeze into those final two spots for September action. The Bulls have booked their ticket and barring a major capitulation, Parkside have all but secured their spot as well. It comes down to the X-Men, Swans, Tigers, Sharks and a Wickers team who need a perfect end to the year to feature. A top-two clash and a battle between two sides eager to jump into the top-four headline what is set to be a very important Round 15.

Kicking off this round will be the clash of the titans, North Brunswick welcoming Parkside to Allard Park for what should be an almighty contest. The Bulls enter this one fresh off a win over the X-Men in a low scoring, inaccurate kicking affair, while the Red-Devils have now made it eight in a row after dispatching the winless Masala by triple-figures. On paper, the Bulls are the superior squad, averaging 15-points more per game while also holding their opponents to lower totals each week, but Parkside are the in-form team of the competition and have had very little issue dispatching their counterparts in the last eight weeks. Since Round 7, Parkside have outscored their opponents by a total of 556 points, holding an average winning margin of just under 70 points a game. In that same span, the Bulls have dropped one game but have claimed an average winning margin of 77 points per win. The key for Parkside will be to limit the abundance of goal-scoring options the Bulls have, either by turning it into a slog or by putting an extra man in defence to help as much as possible. The Bulls should be looking to do what they always do, dominate inside and score with ease. I’m taking the upset, Parkside to win.

Dropping three in-a-row and five of their last seven, St Francis Xavier are on the edge of losing their grasp on a top four position, and with the high scoring Elsternwick making their way to Strathaird Reserve, tumbling out of the finals picture is certainly a real possibility. The X-Men, who started the year 6-1 with an average winning margin of 95-points, have come crashing back to earth, winning just two games since Round 7, and scoring on average just 55 points from their last three games. The Wickers are in a little purple patch entering Round 15, winners of three in a row including a hard-fought 10-point winner over the sliding Swans last weekend. Averaging 137-points per game in their winning streak, Justin Hunter (17), Julian Yeatman (11) and David Grace (10) have all booted double-figure goals during that stretch, but with an elite defensive side in SFX next up, a day out for one of those three becomes a little less likely. Look for the X-Men to hold firm in this one, gain control in the midfield and grab a much needed victory.

This could finally be the week that the South Melbourne Districts put an end to their treacherous run and claim that illusive victory with the winless Masala next on the ballot. It really has been a mighty fall from grace for this side, starting 6-0 and with all the confidence in the world, they have been reeled all the way back to the pack and now sit in equal 4^th on just eight wins and a real possibility to miss finals. Besides their Round 10 domination of the Dees, the Swans have failed to reach the century mark in every clash they have played since Round 6, averaging just 79-points a game since. Masala remain winless, dwelling in bottom spot with a percentage of just 25.86%. Highly unlikely anything catastrophic happens here, and the Swans SHOULD get the win and keep hold of fourth position, for now.

The clash between the Bulls and Red-Devils may be the match of the round, but this one here will certainly have the most significance. The blistering South Mornington will welcome Eley Park to Ferraro Reserve for a chance for the victor to enter the top four. Winners of four in a row and seven of their last eight, the Tigers are arguably the hottest team in the competition. Fresh off back-to-back 100-point drubbings of Masala and Mt Lilydale, this side has their eyes set on a September glory and with the goal-kicking maestro Travis French up-forward, it will take a herculean performance to get past this side. The Sharks have come from the clouds to put themselves in the conversation for a top-four finish, winning six of their last seven with their only blemish coming against Parkside in Round 12. Eley Park have also been a stronger defensive unit in that time span, allowing 81-points per game, down from 109 in the first seven weeks of the season. The pressure will be on the Sharks back six as they look to somehow contain the Tigers goal-kicker Travis French who has bagged 24 majors in the last fortnight, and 76 for the year. South Mornington to continue streaking.

Our final clash pairs two sides keen to end the year on a positive note, with Box Hill North welcoming Mt Lilydale to Elgar Park. It has been a tough season for both of these sides, with mid-season drops dooming them and allowing sides like South Mornington, Eley Park and Elsternwick to pass them with little hassle. This is highlighted by the fact that both teams haven’t hit the century mark since Round 6. Despite the Rams last two performances against the Wicks and Tigers, they have been known for being an above average defensive side, making up for their lack of ability to find the goals. The Dees struggle on both ends of the paddock, ranking second to last ahead of only Masala in both points scored and points conceded on the year. Rams to win.