Top and bottom locked in Premier C, but who claims third and fourth?

Mitch op’t Hoog – @mitch_hoog

Caulfield – 1st, 48 points, 163.78%

Time and time again, Caulfield have proven themselves to be the team to the beat in Premier C. Having just dropped the two games for the season, a top of the ladder finish is all but locked away. And it’s no wonder when you’ve got players like Andre Lister, Nick Baltas, Timothy Nixon, Declan Reilly and Xavier Jordan performing consistently week in week out. Declan Reilly has kicked 43 goals for the year while young gun Nick Baltas has given him a chop out on many occasions, kicking 29 of his own for the year. Based on current form and the fact they face a few easy opponents in the lead up to finals, Caulfield are looming large over the competition as flag favourites. Defensively, they’re better than any side, just as they are offensively, with the least points scored against and the most points for of any Premier C team.

Run home: Marcellin, Old Geelong, Hampton Rovers, Kew

Ladder Prediction: 1st

Old Haileybury – 2nd, 40 points, 151.01%

Two games below Caulfield on the ladder and two games clear of third spot, Old Haileybury should win all four of their remaining games and lock in their second place finish, if they haven’t already. The Bloods pose as Caulfield’s biggest threat in the post-season games, having beaten them convincingly in Round 2 of the regular season. Their season so far has had a real team-oriented focus, rarely relying on one or two key players to do a bulk of the heavy lifting. This is where they will be able to wreak havoc in finals, if you shut down one of their better players there’s a handful more that can fill the void. Blokes like Tim Witherow, Jarrod Plymin and Jackson Arthur are all playing consistent footy and supplying Nathan Waite up forward with plenty of scoring opportunities. Defensively they are elite, too, one of only two teams to have less than 1000 points scored against at this stage of the season, the other being Caulfield.

Run home: Hampton Rovers, Old Mentonians, Williamstown CYMS, Old Geelong

Ladder Prediction: 2nd

Marcellin: 3rd, 32 points, 124.63

Proving themselves to be a real smokey for the flag, Marcellin have made a late run for a top two finish, though it might just be beyond them. Finishing third, however, is looking more and more likely with each passing week and should they win three of their next four games, as is expected, they could cause an upset in finals and knock someone out in straight sets. This didn’t look likely for some time as they were sitting on four wins and six losses after 10 rounds of footy. Their last month, however, has been inspiring, winning four on the trot and improving their average score by 20 points per game; After 10 rounds, they were averaging 82 points per game and over the past month their average score has been 101. Obviously something has shifted down at Marcellin, and whatever it is, it’s working!

Run home: Caulfield, Old Ivanhoe, Old Mentonians, Old Camberwell

Ladder Prediction: 3rd

Old Geelong – 4th, 32 points, 115.11%

 Currently sitting fourth on the ladder after an important win over Williamstown CYMS at Fearon, Old Geelong will be confident they can maintain their spot in the four. However, when you look at their run home, their position doesn’t look so secure. Ogs face both ladder leaders, Old Haileybury and Caulfield Grammarians, as well as Old Ivanhoe and Old Camberwell who are both capable of playing good footy; in order to maintain fourth spot, they’ll need to give four weeks of faultless footy influenced by the leadership of George Burbury and the support of key players like Callum Wood and John Simson who have all had outstanding years. Ogs healthy percentage of 115 could end up being the difference between a finals berth and a September holiday, as it’s currently stronger than the two teams below them, Williamstown CYMS and Old Ivanhoe.

Run home: Old Camberwell, Caulfield Grammarians, Old Ivanhoe, Old Haileybury

Ladder Prediction: 5th

Williamstown CYMS – 5th, 28 points, 112.11%

Williamstown had spent eight consecutive weeks in the top four before being knocked down to fifth spot on the ladder courtesy of an Old Geelong defeat. They’ll look to bounce back this week and use the next two weeks against Old Mentonians and Kew as percentage boosters before facing Old Haileybury in a tough match that could determine whether they play finals. When you compare their run home to Old Geelong’s, the CYs have more winnable games, however, they can make no mistakes from here if they wish to leapfrog back into the top four. The battle for fourth spot is really heating up and it’s a hard one to call, but I believe Williamstown CYMS will find themselves back in the top four come seasons’ end.

Run home: Old Mentonians, Kew, Old Haileybury, Old Ivanhoe

Ladder Prediction: 4th

Old Ivanhoe – 6th, 28 points, 85.52%

Old Ivanhoe have been the constant curveball in Premier C football, never quite knowing what you’re going to get each week. They have put in some of the more impressive performance for the year, defeating Old Haileybury in Round 3 stands out as their best win, but have too often stumbled in games they should’ve won. Despite being just four points outside the top four, I believe a finals berth is beyond the Hoers as their low percentage means they would need to kick a game clear in fourth. Besides their game against Kew this week, Old Ivanhoe’s run home is against three teams above them, all of whom are fighting to stay within finals contention too. Frankly, I can’t see them climbing any higher than 6th on the ladder come seasons’ end. However, if the Hoers are to push for finals it will need to stem from Carl Groth and Michael Mitris leading from the front just as they have done during their club’s important wins this year.

Run home: Kew, Marcellin, Old Geelong, Williamstown CYMS

Ladder Prediction: 6th

Old Mentonians – 7th, 24 points, 92.60%

After coming up from Division 1 in 2016, Old Mentonians have been valiant this year in Premier C. Early on, they were looking to be a top four contender but a form slump in the middle rounds saw them slip from contention. However, they’re still just two games out of the top four, and as we know anything can happen in Premier C. My prediction is they’ll win just one of their remaining four games as they’ve got some tough opponents in Williamstown CYMS, Old Haileybury and Marcellin. They should get the win over Hampton Rovers in Round 18, though, I’m still predicting they’ll slip down to eighth spot on the ladder come seasons’ end.

Run home: Williamstown CYMS, Old Haileybury, Marcellin, Hampton Rovers

Ladder Prediction: 8th

Old Camberwell – 8th. 24 points, 84.97%

 Mathematically, Old Camberwell are stuck in limbo, within reach of the finals and a risk of relegation. however, I don’t believe the Wellers will achieve either of those feats and they should finish the season safe from relegation and outside of finals contention. At this stage, I believe they’re in a good position to push for finals in 2018, and with some good recruiting could even look to climb into Premier B by 2019. Nicholas Adamson has been there standout forward, with 32 goals for the year, but they might need to bulk up their backline in the off-season as they’ve averaged over 90 points against per game. There’s no denying the talent on their list, and if they can hold onto players like Simon Bennett and Nick Latsas in 2018, they should be a good position to push for finals.

Run home: Old Geelong, Hampton Rovers, Kew, Marcellin

Ladder Prediction: 7th

Hampton Rovers – 9th, 16 points, 66.10%

After coming down from Premier B, the Rovers would’ve had high hopes heading into the season and they’ll be gutted they weren’t able to push for finals spots in 2017. Now their main concern is facing double relegation and exiting the Premier grades after many years as a top club. Mathematically speaking, they’re still a chance for survival, but they’d need to win a minimum of three games given their percentage is sitting at just 66.10%. Unfortunately, I can’t see this happening for the Rovers and 2018 in Division 1 seems imminent.

Run home: Old Haileybury, Old Camberwell, Caulfield, Old Mentonians

Prediction: 9th

Kew – 10th, 8 points, 50.72%

There’s not much to take from the season for Kew and with relegation secured all games from now are simply a matter of pride. It would be great to see Kew get one more win before the season’s end, but their run home is relatively tough, capped off by facing the ladder leaders in the final round. One positive to take from the year is the fact the Bears were able to work 43 different players through their senior team, providing plenty of young guys with run in the ones to begin preparations to climb back up to Premier C next year.

Run home: Old Ivanhoe, Williamstown CYMS, Old Camberwell, Caulfield

Prediction: 10th